Weather Outlook for January 12 - 15, 2010

High Pressure will cause Florida to warm more and more each day… Freezes possible overnight across North Florida until Thursday… Developing low pressure in the gulf will bring rain chances to state Friday afternoon… Wildfire threat will diminish Friday

Tonight

A dry cold front moving across the state today will provide a final reinforcing shot of cold air for Florida which will cause one more night of freezing temperatures across inland portions of Central Florida and two more nights of freezes across North Florida.  Winds will die down as the night progresses but a northerly wind from 5-10mph will produce overnight wind chill values in the low 20s across North Florida, low 30s across Central Florida, and low to mid 30s across South Florida.  Hard Freeze watches and warnings will remain in effect for many North Florida areas as sub-freezing temperatures for extended durations of 6-10 hours could reach as far south as Ocala.  Temperatures will drop below freezing across inland portions of Central Florida but extended durations are not expected.

Overnight minimum temperatures will drop to the low 20s across Northwest Florida, mid 20s across Northeast Florida, mid to upper 30s across Central Florida, and upper 30s to low 40s across South Florida.

Wednesday & Thursday

Florida will finally begin to rise out of the cold snap mid-week as cold air advection comes to a halt and high pressure allows radiational heating to warm up the state slowly on Wednesday, yielding temperatures closer to typical January averages on Thursday.  Winds will diminish and wind chill values will play less of a factor in the weather and in the ‘apparent (feels like) temperature’ of the outdoors.  Temperatures will drop below freezing values across North Florida Wednesday night, but the approach of high clouds from the south should prevent a hard freeze from occurring Wednesday night.  Instead, a more general freeze with accompanying patchy frost is expected. 

{sidebar id=1}All minimum temperatures throughout the state Thursday night are expected to remain above 32 degrees (with possible exception to extreme northern portions of Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton Counties that may briefly touch the freezing mark) and any widespread freezes are not expected, though patchy frost may exist in some isolated portions of the western panhandle.

Daily maximum temperatures on Wednesday will reach the mid 50s across Northwest Florida, upper 50s across Northeast Florida, low 60s across Central and Southwest Florida, and upper 60s across Southeast Florida.  Overnight minimum temperatures Wednesday night will fall to the mid 20s across Northwest Florida, low 30s across Northwest Florida, low to mid 40s across Central Florida, upper 40s across Southwest Florida, and low to mid 50s across Southeast Florida.  High temperatures on Thursday will reach rise to the upper 50s across the western panhandle, low 60s across the Florida Big Bend, mid 60s across Northwest Florida, upper 60s to low 70s across Central Florida, and low 70s across South Florida.  Thursday night lows will drop to the upper 30s across Northwest Florida, low 40s across Northeast Florida, low 50s across Central Florida, and upper 50s to low 60s across South Florida.

Friday

The weather will begin to change Friday as a low pressure forms in the western Gulf of Mexico and begins to move east toward Florida.  The storm system and its associated fronts will still remain well to our west Friday evening, but increasing moisture and cloud cover ahead of the system may produce some isolated showers across the western panhandle during the day and scattered showers after sunset across North Florida with isolated activity across Central and South Florida overnight.

{sidebar id=1}Friday night will be noticeably warmer and temperatures will be up to 10 degrees higher than the night before.  Probabilities for severe weather remain low at this time due to poor thermodynamic instability, but a thunderstorm or two packing gusty winds and a stray lightning strike is not out of the question Friday night across North Florida.  The main concern will be the heavy amount of rain Northwest Florida will receive.  Accumulations may reach 2 inches over the weekend across the western panhandle and Florida Big Bend, 1 inch across Northeast and West-Central Florida, and 0.5 inches across East-Central Florida.  Localized flooding may occur in urban areas, low-lying roadways, and areas with poor drainage systems.  If you approach a flooded roadway, always remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown and avoid taking a life-threatening risk.

Daily maximum temperatures on Friday will reach the mid 60s across Northwest Florida, upper 60s across Northeast Florida, mid 70s across Central Florida, and mid to upper 70s across South Florida.  Overnight low temperatures will drop to the upper 40s across Northwest Florida, low 50s across Northeast Florida, upper 50s across Central Florida, low 60s across Southwest Florida, and mid to upper 60s across Southeast Florida.

Rip Currents

The seas will be relatively calm this week before the cold front reaches Florida this weekend.  Rip currents risks will be low across Atlantic coastline of Florida Wednesday and Thursday due to weak onshore wind flow.  The advancement of a cold front from the west will increase winds and may create moderate rip current risks across Southwest Florida and the western panhandle on Friday.  Daily surf zone and rip current forecasts for all Florida beaches.

Fire Weather

Relative humidity values are expected to drop below the 35% threshold for a few hours Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across all areas of Northwest Florida away from the immediate coast.  A red flag warning or fire weather watch may be issued across North Florida because these conditions will enhance the spread of wildfires should they occur.  Moisture ahead of an approaching low pressure system will increase Friday and diminish the wildfire threat through the weekend.

Have a great week and enjoy the warm up!

Melody Lovin
Intern Meteorologist
State Meteorological Support Unit
Florida Division of Emergency Management FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis

Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service.

This information originally published on January 12, 2010.

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Written by :

mkwestmark

 

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