More organized strong to severe storm threat developing for Friday and Saturday; locally heavy rainfall expected across much of the region.

Overview:

An upper level disturbance located across eastern Texas will continue to slowly drift eastward over the next couple of days.  As this system moves east, it will increase thunderstorm potential both Friday and
Saturday afternoons.  While thunderstorm development will be primarily driven by inland moving sea breeze fronts, the presence of this disturbance will provide additional support and lead to greater coverage of thunderstorms.  In fact, some of these storms could become severe as the upper level disturbance provides additional wind shear.

Weather Set up for Friday:

Often times, during the summer, the atmosphere is quite unstable, but in our region, the missing ingredient for organized severe weather is wind shear.  This approaching disturbance will serve to increase wind shear enough to aid in severe thunderstorm development, especially across the western portions of the region as the sea breeze fronts move inland.  Thunderstorms are also expected to develop earlier in the  day, perhaps as early as 11 am ET.

Because the airmass across the region will be very moist, the potential for locally heavy rainfall with the thunderstorms is increased.  Even though the storms will move to the northeast around 15 mph, locally heavy rainfall can be expected with some storms producing rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour.

Severe Weather Probabilities:

Since this wind shear on Friday is predicted to be slightly stronger than normal for early June, the organized severe potential is increased, especially across the western half of the region, closer to the upper level low.  Our latest forecast indicates the probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point is between 15 and 20 percent on Friday afternoon, as shown in the image below in the yellow areas.  Locations in green have a slightly lower probability near 10 percent. 

The main threat with these storms will be microburst winds up to 60 mph.  Small hail is also possible, but will not be the dominant threat.

Timing of the weather system:

Outlook for Saturday:

A continued moist environment and unstable airmass will once again support scattered to numerous thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.  Our current forecast shows greater than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms across much of the area (dark green areas) as shown below.

Summary:

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region on Friday.   Due to the presence of an upper level low, some storms may be more organized and become severe by early afternoon.

The main risk with these storms will be downburst winds approaching 60 mph.

Some storms could produce very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. Rainfall rates could approach 2 inches per hour in the strongest storms.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor this storm’s progress over the next couple of days.

Written by :

snelson

 

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