In this update:

Slight Risk of severe storms on Wednesday, May 9, 2012.

Key Points for this event:

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop area wide on Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms will begin in the early afternoon along the north Florida seabreeze front (enhanced by a weak upper level disturbance), and continue through the early evening as a front approaches from the west.
Surface analysis from 5 AM Tuesday.

The current weather picture:

With the local area placed in an atmospheric warm sector, scattered storms were expected this (Tuesday) afternoon.  A few strong storms were possible with small hail and gusty winds being the primary threat.  Widespread severe weather was not expected today.  As the cold front and attendant upper-level disturbance approach tomorrow, the severe threat will increase.

Surface Analysis from 5AM Tuesday

The future weather picture:

As the cold front approaches from the west, it will interact with local seabreeze fronts to create numerous showers and thunderstorms across SE Alabama, southern Georgia, and north Florida.  Additionally, upper-level support will increase the winds aloft and allow for more organized updrafts to develop in the already unstable air mass.

Surface Analysis for 5AM Wednesday

The Event:

The following image shows the probability of severe storms within 25 miles of a point.  These probabilities should NOT be confused with our normal Probability Of Precipitation (“PoP”) forecasts, which are much higher percentages.  (Rain occurs much more regularly and over larger areas than severe storms).  Normally our chance for severe storms in early May is about 1% (or less); so this forecast is calling for a fifteen-fold increase in the risk for severe thunderstorms.  The most likely threats are damaging winds (gusts of 58 MPH or higher) and/or large hail (quarter size or greater).  The image shows the greatest chance for severe weather across our southeast Alabama and southern Georgia counties.

Timing:

Early in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop along the north Florida seabreeze fronts.  The threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail will exist with these storms.  Later in the afternoon storms will approach from the west along a frontal boundary.  The storms will carry a greater risk of damaging winds rather than a significant hail threat.  With multiple forcing mechanisms area wide storms will begin after the noon hour and remain numerous across our entire forecast area until the front begins to clear from west to east a couple of hours after sunset.  The threat for severe weather will come to an end by the midnight hour, with showers coming to an end area wide a few hours thereafter.

Impacts:

Atmospheric conditions appear unlikely to support a widespread severe outbreak that will significantly drain local emergency management and first response resources.  The impacts will mostly likely be limited to localized areas of downed trees and/or power lines (on a neighborhood scale), and possible damage to more vulnerable structures like mobile homes and small sheds.  Hail, though isolated, may be large enough to cause small dents and/or chipped windows in automobiles.

Summary:

There is a Slight Risk of severe storms on Wednesday.

The highest probability (15%) of severe storms is in Southeast Alabama and Southern Georgia.

Most of the thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon and evening hours.

Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor this situation.  If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at
800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist.  We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

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