Hurricane Ida Update: Sunday Evening Notes and Briefing Packet
  Tropics Update: November 8, 2009
In this update:
Hurricane Ida current conditions.
Potential for a Northwest Florida impact this week.
Potential for impacts to the Florida Peninsula.
Hurricane Ida continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
At 4pm EST, Hurricane Ida was located about 95 miles west-northwest of the western tip of Cuba. This position is also about 553 miles south of Panama City, Florida. Maximum sustained winds have increase to near 100mph, making Ida a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Ida is currently moving toward the north-northwest around 10mph. However, a gradual turn to the north and an increase in forward speed is forecast for the next 24-36 hours. Ida is currently entering the southern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to be near the northern-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
The 3 day error cone includes all of North Florida and portions of northern Central Florida, with the 4 day error cone encompassing the remainder of the central Florida Peninsula as well as northern South Florida.
Compared to the previous forecast track, a faster forward motion is expected. This would allow Ida to move closer to the northern-central Gulf Coast prior to being steered east by an approaching frontal system. This would effectively result in a landfall near or just east of the Florida/Alabama border Tuesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90mph. An increase in strength is possible today and Ida could approach or reach category 2 strength this afternoon or this evening. However, as Ida moves northward, it will enter a somewhat more hostile environment where increased wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will likely weaken it. However, the official forecast calls for Ida to remain a category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Gulf Coast.
Computer models are still in fair disagreement with respect to track, intensity and timing. Many model solutions now bring Ida inland as a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm along the central Gulf Coast then over southern Alabama or Georgia. (Reminder: 2 of these plots are not actual models… the solid orange line with circles is a track based on climatology and the dotted black line with triangles is an extrapolation of its current direction of movement)
Since Ida is not expected to remain rather strong as it approaches the Gulf Coast, there is a chance that immediate areas of the Florida Panhandle could receive hurricane force winds or hurricane force wind gusts. Timing is still uncertain, but may be as early as Monday afternoon.
You often hear us say not to focus on the exact forecast track of a storm as the forecast is not always perfect. That is especially key in this case as the effects from Ida will expand to cover a large area and locations far from the center ahead of the storm as it begins the transition to an extratropical storm and the wind field expands.
Ida is being steered between a ridge of high pressure and an approaching trough of low pressure from Eastern Mexico. Ida will continue to move northward through this break for the next 36 to 48 hours. But as Ida moves further northward, she will encounter increasing wind shear due to the trough of low pressure. This wind shear and an approaching cold front will likely weaken Ida and cause it to transition to an extratropical storm, or winter-type storm.
In short, whether Ida maintains or loses tropical characteristics, the Gulf Coast region has the potential to see several inches of rain, strong winds, isolated tornadoes and dangerous surf and coastal flooding beginning Monday night and continuing into Wednesday.
Potential impacts:
Florida Panhandle: Tropical storm force winds possible as early as early Monday evening, gusts to near hurricane strength on Tuesday. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches that may lead to minor flooding of roads and rivers. Storm tide values of 3-6 feet. Moderate beach erosion and coastal flooding possible. Coastal Flood Watch in effect.
Florida Big Bend: Tropical storm force winds possible Tuesday through Wed afternoon. Rainfall 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts to 4-6 inches. Storm tide values of 5-7 feet along Apalachee Bay. Highest possible surge values in Franklin and Wakulla Counties. Isolated tornadoes possible. Coastal flooding possible. Coastal Flood Watch in effect.
Florida Peninsula: Tropical storm force gusts possible Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches. High rip current risk Sunday through Wednesday. Isolated tornadoes possible.
Summary:
- Hurricane Ida gaining is strength in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 100mph, making Ida a category 2 hurricane.
- Additional strengthening is possible today, but a gradual weakening
trend is expected on Monday as it encounters increased wind shear and
cooler ocean temperatures over the northern and central Gulf of Mexico.
- Ida is expected to begin to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday as
it interacts with a frontal system. However, this will occur very close
to the northern Gulf coast and tropical-like impacts may be possible
(high winds, storm surge, heavy rain, tornadoes, etc.).
- The official forecast track now has the center of Hurricane Ida
approaching the southeastern parishes of Louisiana Monday evening and
then the extratropical remnants of Ida very near the Alabama/Florida
border early Tuesday, then inland over the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday
afternoon.
- The official forecast track now has the center of Hurricane Ida
approaching the southeastern parishes of Louisiana Monday evening and
then the extratropical remnants of Ida very near the Alabama/Florida
border early Tuesday, then inland over the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday
afternoon.
- Though the structure of Ida may not be fully tropical by the time it
makes landfall along the Panhandle coast Tuesday, tropical storm and
hurricane force winds, along with feeder bands with strong
thunderstorms will likely affect Northwest Florida.
As Ida becomes extratropical over North Florida, the wind field will
expand. This will produce the potential for tropical storm force winds
over a large area of Florida.- A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect for the Florida coast west of
Mexico Beach, with a Hurricane Wind Watch in effect eastward to
Alligator Point.
- A Gale Warning has been issued for Key West and the Dry Tortugas for
frequent gusts to gale force strength (tropical storm force strength).
Lake Wind and Wind Advisories are in effect for much of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today for expected sustained winds of
25-30mph and gusts to 40mph. This may continue into Monday, however,
these strong winds are not directly associated with Ida's wind field.
- A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for the Panhandle coast west of Wakulla County.
- An elevated rip current threat will continue along all Florida beaches through Tuesday.
Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov
Another update will be issued Monday afternoon.
Amy Godsey
Deputy State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management
This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it
Phone: (850) 617-9121
www.FloridaDisaster.org
This information originally published on November 8, 2009.
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