Written by Michelle Palmer, Deputy State Meteorologist, FDEM Friday, 29 June 2012 21:55
High Pressure Dominates the Southeast Giving Clear Skies and Above Average Temperatures…
Drink Plenty of Water and Limit Strenuous Outdoor Activities During the Late Morning and Afternoon as Heat Index Values Approach 110°… Very Few Showers Are Expected to Develop Along the Seabreeze Statewide… Continued Flooding for Several North and West Central Florida Rivers…
High pressure will bring clear skies and hot temperatures for most of Florida on Saturday. High humidity values will cause rain and thunderstorm chances to increase to 10-30% for Central and North Florida on Sunday. South Florida has a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday through Sunday night due to lingering moisture and afternoon seabreezes. There is a slight chance that these storms may be strong enough to produce lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.
North Florida high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat indices are expected to reach 108 to 112 degrees along and north of Interstate 10 with the higher end of that range coming on Sunday as increasing moisture enters the area. Central Florida is expected to have highs in the mid 90s inland and low 90s along the coasts for Saturday and Sunday. South Florida may have high temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 70s with low 80s for the Keys.
High pressure in place from the weekend will continue to dominate the sunshine state into the work week, giving way to rather dry and unusually hot conditions statewide.
This warming and drying trend will continue to pave another beautiful day for much of the state on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and light winds. However, afternoon sea breezes will give a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the state.
Temperatures statewide will scorch to above average for this time of year, especially for inland regions. In North Florida daytime highs will scorch into the upper 90s inland while afternoon sea breezes will limit coastal regions to remain in the uppers 80s for both Monday and Tuesday. Central and South Florida will be on the mild side in the upper 80s to low 90s except the Florida Keys, only reaching the mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will remain rather seasonable in North Florida, in the low to upper 70s. Cloud cover further south will keep overnight temperatures slightly warmer in Central and South Florida, in the uppers 70s to low 80s range.
Lingering ocean swells and favorable tidal conditions will produce a moderate risk for rip currents along the East Central Florida coast today. The rest of the state’s beaches will see a low risk with light winds and calm seas. On Saturday, increasing southwesterly winds across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend will bring an elevated risk to the beaches of the Emerald Coast and also to the Forgotten Coast, while the remainder of Florida’s coastal areas stay under a low risk. On Monday, winds will slowly increase along the southeastern Florida coastline, and this will elevate the risk along the Gold Coast. Otherwise, this weekend and early next week look to be great for beach weather with hot temperatures and plenty of sunshine in the forecast! We encourage all beachgoers that plan to enter the surf to look for warning flags and to also swim within sight of a lifeguard. Everyone should check their local rip current forecast and learn how to escape a rip current before going to their beach destination.
Drought & Fire Weather:
The combination of hot daytime temperatures and low relative humidity values will lead to an elevated risk of wildfires over most of the state early this weekend. Although conditions will be above the critical level for fire weather watches or warnings, all residents and visitors are encouraged to stay Firewise this weekend. By Sunday and heading into next week, relative humidity values will gradually increase and we will slowly see our wildfire concerns lower.
With excessive rainfall over the state last week in response to Tropical Storm Debby our drought conditions have nearly diminished statewide. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only 14.55% of the state remains abnormally dry. The remaining 85% is currently drought-free! The last time such a large amount of the state was without drought conditions was in August 2010!
The post-tropical remnants of Debby are located about 110 miles north of Bermuda and moving rapidly east-northeast at 20 mph. Although this system continues to produce strong winds, the shower and thunderstorm activity is minimal and conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for any re-development to occur. The National Hurricane Center is giving the remnants of Debby only a 10% chance of redeveloping by Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean is producing showers and thunderstorms that have slowly become more concentrated around the center of the wave. Any development of this wave will be slow to occur as it moves westward at about 15 mph and the National Hurricane Center is indicating a 20% chance of this system developing within the next 48 hours. An interesting note is that this wave is the first activity we have seen in the main development region of the Atlantic this season. We typically begin to see more activity in this area of the Atlantic later in the summer and early fall.
Deputy State Meteorologist
State Meteorological Support Unit
Florida Division of Emergency Management
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