Another Storm System Moves Into the Region Later This Week... Severe Weather Possible Across North Florida on Friday... Main Threats Will Be Damaging Wind Gusts and Isolated Tornadoes... Minor Flooding Possible in the Western Panhandle... Rainfall Not Enough to Reduce the Fire Threat Across the Peninsula... Strong Winds Ahead and Behind the Cold Front Bring an Elevated Threat for Rip Currents... Cooler Weather Arrives Saturday...

Tuesday-Wednesday:

A storm system and associated frontal boundaries will bring some much needed rainfall to the state, but also the risk for severe weather later this week.  The weather will be fairly calm on Tuesday, with most of the state enjoying mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across North Florida and mid to upper 70s across Central and South Florida.  Only a few light showers will be possible across the Florida Big Bend and Suwannee Valley on Tuesday afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves across the region ahead of cold front moving through the Ohio Valley.  Overnight lows will be comfortable, ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s across North Florida and between the upper 50s and low 60s across mainland Central and South Florida.  The Florida Keys will enjoy mild lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

On Wednesday, showers may be more widespread as a warm front begins to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico.  An upper level disturbance passing through the region will interact with this developing frontal boundary and generate an area of scattered showers which will spread east into Northwest Florida during the mid-morning hours and then into the northern Peninsula during the afternoon on Wednesday.  A few showers may even develop over northern Central Florida near I-4.  Since most of the rainfall should be light, rainfall chances will only be between 20% and 40% on Wednesday, with the highest rain chances along the Panhandle and Big Bend coast and lesser chances along the northern and central Peninsula.  Showers will continue to spread east Wednesday night and rain chances will be around 30% for all of North Florida and around 20% for northern Central Florida Wednesday night.

Otherwise, most of Central Florida and all of South Florida will remain dry under partly cloudy skies.  Despite the increasing rain chances and cloud cover, warm southerly winds will produce high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across North Florida and upper 70s to low 80s across Central and South Florida, and low temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s statewide.

Thursday-Friday:

As the warm front begins to lift north into the Panhandle on Thursday, a series of disturbances moving along the front will generate another round of showers across North Florida, with rain chances around 30-40% under mostly cloudy skies.  Thunderstorms may develop across Northwest Florida in the afternoon and will need to be monitored since the atmosphere will be favorable for the development of a few strong to severe thunderstorms.  Any severe storms that develop may produce strong wind gusts and lightning.  Rain should dissipate across the Peninsula Thursday evening, though a 20-40% chance of showers and a few thunderstorms may continue across the Panhandle and Big Bend ahead of the main line of thunderstorms organizing over the Lower Mississippi Valley ahead of a cold front.

The chance for severe weather will increase over North Florida on Friday with the approach of the squall line moving in from the west.  Although there is some uncertainty regarding the strength of this next system, many computer models indicate that it has the potential to be stronger than last weekend’s system, and should push the squall line into the Florida Panhandle during the daylight hours on Friday.  The environment will be supportive for severe storms to produce damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes, especially across Alabama and Mississippi on Thursday, but could extend southeastward into northern Florida on Friday.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend and much of Northeast Florida in an area for the enhanced risk of severe weather and severe weather watches may be issued early Friday. 

Rainfall chances will be high, between 50% and 70% from the Panhandle to the Suwannee Valley, and another round of heavy rainfall is possible.  Any locally heavy rainfall will increase the potential for flooding across the Panhandle, given the recently saturated soil.  Rain should end by early evening across the Panhandle and exit the eastern Big Bend shortly after sunset.  Residents and visitors are encouraged to monitor local media outlets or NOAA Weather Radio and be prepared to take shelter in case any warnings are issued.

Central and South Florida areas will remain dry on Thursday, but rain chances will increase on Friday, especially in the afternoon and evening as the front moves into the Peninsula.  A 30-40% chance of scattered showers are forecast for Central Florida areas Friday afternoon and evening, with rain ending north of I-4 by midnight.  Only a 10-30% chance of isolated showers are forecast for southern Central Florida and South Florida since the front and squall line will likely weaken significantly by the time it reaches I-4.  Any rainfall that occurs is expected to be light, less than a half of an inch, and the chance for any strong thunderstorms or severe weather is low.

Daytime highs on Thursday and Friday will be above normal and rather warm across the Peninsula, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.  Across the Panhandle, afternoon highs in the 70s on Thursday will cool to the mid to upper 60s on Friday afternoon.  Overnight lows will remain mild in the 60s statewide on Thursday, but a cooler airmass will move in behind the front on Friday evening and overnight lows will cool into the low to mid 40s across Northwest Florida, upper 40s to mid 50s across Northeast Florida, and upper 50s to low 60s across Central Florida.  Since the front will not cross South Florida until early Saturday, lows in the mid to upper 60s will remain across South Florida Friday night.

Saturday:

Pleasant conditions will be in place statewide for the weekend as high pressure moves into the region behind the cold front.  Any lingering light rain showers will exit South Florida by midday Saturday, and sunny skies should be in place statewide with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s across North Florida and upper 60s to mid 70s across most of Central and South Florida.  The only exception may be near the Miami metro area where highs may reach the upper 70s.  However, breezy north winds ranging between 10 and 20 mph throughout the state may make the temperatures feel a few degrees cooler.  Temperatures could be chilly Saturday night, with forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s across inland areas of North Florida and low to mid 40s along the coast.  Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are forecast for Central Florida areas, with temperatures reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s across South Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday morning.  There is a chance that lows could be even colder, with a light freeze possible across much of North Florida.

Rip Currents:

East to southeast winds of 5-10mph and ocean swells will produce a moderate risk of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast from Nassau to Palm Beach County on Tuesday.  Winds will switch and increase out of the south around 10mph on Wednesday and out of the southwest between 10 and 15 mph on Thursday, which will increase the rip current risk along the Panhandle beaches.  Strong south winds of 10-20mph on Friday and unsettled weather will likely produce a moderate to high risk of dangerous rip currents along much of the Florida Gulf Coast, but north winds on Saturday should decrease the threat.

Anyone who plans to enter the water should check their local rip current forecast before going to their beach destination.  Everyone should always remember that the safest beaches are the ones protected by lifeguards.  Daily surf zone and rip current forecasts for all Florida beaches.

Drought & Fire Weather:

The storm system on Friday will bring some beneficial rain to North Florida.  This will keep the risk of fires low for the next few days.  However, lighter rainfall amounts, the threat for lightning and gusty winds will keep the fire risk elevated for the Peninsula through the next 5 days.  Also, smoke from wildfires may be carried a long distance by breezy winds each day.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, the entire State of Florida is still at least abnormally dry, and 57% of Florida is still considered to be in severe or extreme drought conditions.  The highest drought values currently exist across the northern Florida Peninsula, where it is estimated that 9-12 inches of rain is needed to relieve the current long-term drought.  Also, short term drought values, as indicated by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, continue to rise across the Florida Peninsula, which further increases the threat for wildfire outbreaks.  Recent heavy rainfall has relieved or nearly erased short-term drought conditions across Northwest Florida, but 6-9 inches of rain is still needed to erase the long-term drought.

Due to continuing La Nina conditions which are forecast to persist until May, a drier and warmer than normal winter is forecast for the Southeastern U.S.  With only a 10-30% chance of relieving the drought during the next 3 months, drought conditions are forecast to worsen and expand across much of the state through the remainder of the winter.

Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service.

For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Have a great week!!

Amy Godsey, State Meteorologist
State Meteorological Support Unit
Florida Division of Emergency Management
www.FloridaDisaster.org
www.KidsGetAPlan.com

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