Some Storms may be Strong with Gusty Winds, Frequent Lighting and Heavy Rain…

Another Cold Front Expected to pass through North and Central Florida This Weekend… Chilly Evenings Possible for North Florida this Weekend…

Saturday and Sunday:

The first weekend of fall will begin to feel more seasonal as an approaching cold front will govern the weather.  The cold front is expected to move through North Florida on Saturday evening.  Increased rain chances, however are not anticipated as dry air continues to linger across Northwest Florida.  Meanwhile, the Florida Peninsula will see rain chances between 30% in Northeast Florida and 50% in South Florida.

This cold front will continue to push into Central Florida on Sunday.  This will generate a 30%-40% chance for rain in South Florida.  Meanwhile, North and Central Florida will have dramatically lower rain chances.  The exception will be near the I-4 corridor where a 20% chance of rain is forecast.

Afternoon high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 80s statewide each day.  However, the fronts will have a more dramatic effect on the overnight low temperatures.  The effects will be seen late into the weekend and early in the work week as dry air filters in behind the approaching front.  Lows Saturday are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s across North and Central Florida with mid 70s across South Florida.  On Sunday, however, lows are anticipated to drop towards the low 60s (and maybe even the upper 50s in some spots) across North Florida.  Central and South Florida will see temperatures remain into the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Tuesday:

The front likely will stall south of the I-4 corridor.  This will allow South Florida to continue to see rain chances between 30% and 40% both days.  High pressure and drier air will continue to govern conditions for most of North and Central Florida.  Moisture will begin filtering back into the Florida Peninsula generating a 20% chance of rain across Northeast and Central Florida each day.  Northwest Florida, however, will see minimal rain chances into the middle of next week.

A severe weather outbreak is not expected at this time, but a few isolated storms have the potential to become strong or even reach severe thresholds.  Frequent lightning and gusty winds will be the main hazards associated with any strong storms.  Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible each day, which may intensify flooding concerns, particularly over South Florida.

Overall, mostly cloudy skies are expected ahead of the stalled frontal boundary with partly cloudy skies expected behind it.  Despite both fronts passing through, afternoon high temperatures are expected to remain in the mid-to-upper 80s statewide each day.

Overnight low temperatures are expected to recover slightly beginning Monday with lows in the low to mid 60s forecast across North Florida with low to mid 70s across Central and South Florida.  This pattern is expected to continue into Tuesday.

Rip Currents:

Lingering ocean swells originating from Tropical Storm Nadine are currently impacting the Florida east coast.  These swells will create a moderate rip current risk along Atlantic Coast beaches from Volusia County through Martin County.  This rip current risk is expected to persist through Sunday, until ocean swells originating from Invest 94L reach the coast.  Then, the moderate risk may expand to include the entire Atlantic Coast and persist through midweek.

Otherwise the remaining Gulf Coast beaches will see a low risk of rip currents for the next 5 days.  Anyone who plans to enter the water should check their local rip current forecast before going to their beach destination.  Everyone should always remember that the safest beaches are the ones protected by lifeguards. 

Drought & Fire Weather:

Recent rainfall accumulations as well as current rain chances will keep the fire risk across Florida at low levels for the next 5 days.  In addition, our drought conditions have diminished statewide.  According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Florida is 100% drought-free!  Seasonable rainfall accumulations are expected to keep Florida from reentering a longterm drought for the next 3 months.

Tropics:

As of 2pm EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Nadine was located 305 miles south of the Azores Islands.  Maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph, and little change in strength is forecast for the next couple of days.  Nadine could lose its tropical characteristics over this time period.  Tropical Storm Nadine is moving toward the south-southeast at 13 mph, and Nadine is expected to turn toward the southeast tonight and toward the east on Sunday.  The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Nadine moving in a general southeastward direction through the next few days as it stays in the eastern Atlantic Ocean while remaining far away from the United States.

Elsewhere, as of 2pm, the non-tropical area of low pressure, designated as invest 94L, continues to produce showers and storms about 400 miles east of Bermuda, but it has not become any better organized.  Environmental conditions will remain favorable for this system to develop today before it moves over colder waters.  The National Hurricane Center has lowered the probability of development to a medium chance (30%).  Computer models are in agreement that this storm will move to the northwest before getting picked up by a frontal system while staying far away from Florida.  More information from the National Hurricane Center can be found here.

Florida NCAA Division 1 Football Forecast

Saturday September 22, 2012

UCF – Bye Week

UF vs. Kentucky:  Kickoff temperatures will start out 86° and peak at 89° towards the conclusion of the game.  Partly cloudy skies will accompany a 10%-20% chance of rain throughout the game.  Winds will be from the north between 6 and 8 mph.  In Gainesville, FL Kickoff 12:21pm EDT

UM @ Georgia Tech:  Temperatures are forecast to remain steady at 83° throughout the game.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected to accompany a 20% chance of rain throughout the game.  Winds are expected to be from the Northwest between 8 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15mph.  In Atlanta, GA Kickoff 3:00pm EDT

Bethune Cookman vs. Tennessee State:  Temperatures are expected to decrease from 87° at the coin toss to 80° at the final whistle.  Increased rain chances, between 40% and 50%, will accompany mostly cloudy skies.  Winds are expected to be from the east between 6 and 8mph. in Daytona Beach, FL Kickoff 4:00pm EDT

USF @ Ball State:  Temperatures will start off steady at a chilly 59° until halftime when they cool off to about 53° at the conclusion.  Rain chances will be between 30% and 40% throughout the game as mostly cloudy conditions begin clearing out.  Winds are anticipated to be near 15 mph out of the west-northwest with gusts as high as 25 mph.  In Muncie, IN Kickoff 4:30pm EDT

FAU @ Alabama:  Temperatures will make a sharp decrease from about 87° at the opening drive to about 66° at the conclusion.  Conditions will start out as partly cloudy, but gradual clearing will occur as the game progresses.  Rain chances will remain near 10%.  Winds will start out from the northwest at 10mph and decrease to about 5 mph towards the final play.  In Tuscaloosa, AL Kickoff 5:00pm EDT

FAMU vs. Delaware State:  Temperatures are expected to decrease from about 79° at kickoff to about 67° by the end of the game.  Mostly cloudy skies will persist throughout the game and rain chances will start off at 30% before spiking to about 50% at halftime.  Southerly winds between 8 and 10 mph are expected to shift to westerly winds as the game progresses.  In Dover, DE Kickoff 6:00pm EDT

FIU vs. Louisville:  Temperatures are expected to be rather steady throughout the game near 79° to 80°.  Conditions may become a bit sloppy as a 40% chance of showers and storms will accompany overcast skies.  Winds are expected to start out from the southwest at 7mph before decreasing to light westerly winds.  In Miami, FL Kickoff 7:00pm EDT

FSU vs. Clemson:  Conditions will be beautiful for football in Tallahassee as temperatures decrease from 81° during the pregame festivities to about 72° by the final kneel down.  Partly cloudy skies will start off the game, but cloud cover will increase as the game progresses.  Rain is not anticipated during this game, and winds are expected to be calm.  In Tallahassee, FL Kickoff 8:00pm EDT

Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service.

For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Have a great weekend and go Noles!

Bradley Schaaf, Meteorologist
State Meteorological Support Unit
Florida Division of Emergency Management
www.FloridaDisaster.org
www.KidsGetAPlan.com

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