Written by Bradley Schaaf, Meteorologist, FL Division of Emergency Management Sunday, 29 July 2012 07:48
A Typical Summer Weather Pattern is in Place with Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms in the Forecast…
Heat Index Values May Reach Above 105 Degrees in Some Inland Locations Later this Week… Everyone is Encouraged to Stay Hydrated and to Take Frequent Breaks in Air Conditioning if You Plan on Being Outside for a Prolonged Period of Time…Tropics May Become More Active this Weekend or Next Week…Sunday-Tuesday:
For Central and South Florida, the area of high pressure is forecast to remain nearly stationary and will continue to generate mostly sunny skies. Although the seabreeze will likely move ashore each day, the continued dry air will likely keep rain chances between 10% and 20%; but some areas of Central Florida may see their rain chances increase to 30% on Tuesday. Again, the showers and storms should remain rather isolated, but anything that does develop may become strong or even severe. The main threats will be frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
For North Florida, the summertime pattern is expected to continue as the seabreeze generates showers and thunderstorms each day. In addition, a few atmospheric disturbances to our north may meander into Florida generating additional possibilities for showers and storms. As a result, a 30%-50% chance of rain will be possible each day. The risk for severe weather will remain low, but a few storms may become strong or even severe with the same threats listed above.
Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be able to climb into the upper 80s near the coast and mid to upper 90s inland. The combination of high temperatures and high humidity values will allow heat index values to soar up to 106 degrees each day. Overnight lows will continue dipping into the mid to upper 70s across Florida.
Persistent high ocean waves will lead to a moderate risk for rip currents along many Atlantic Coast beaches from Nassau County through Martin County as well as many Panhandle beaches over the next 3 days. Although Southeast Florida beaches are expecting an overall low risk of rip currents, there will be times when the risk elevates to moderate levels, especially during periods of low tide. Otherwise, the remaining Gulf Coast beaches will see a low risk of rip currents for the next 3 days.
If you plan to take a refreshing swim in the ocean, you are encouraged to check your local rip current forecast and learn how to escape a rip current before going to your beach destination. Everyone should always remember that the safest beaches are the ones protected by lifeguards. Daily surf zone and rip current forecasts for all Florida beaches.
Drought & Fire Weather:
Recent and forecast rainfall accumulations are expected to generate a low risk for wildfires across Florida for the next 3 days.
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, about 22% of Florida is abnormally dry, and almost 7% of Florida is experiencing a moderate drought. The highest drought values currently exist across Northwest Florida where they are seeing rainfall deficits of up to 20 inches since the beginning of the water year (October). In addition, short term drought values, as noted by the Keetch-Bryam Drought Index, are beginning to increase across all of North Florida.
As the rainy season continues, Florida is forecast to continue seeing seasonable rainfall; and the recurring drought across Northwest Florida is likely to improve.
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, conditions are trending towards an El Niño state and most of Florida is forecast to remain below the normal significant fire risk over the next 3 months. View active fires from the Florida Forest Service.
There are several tropical waves traveling across the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. In addition, there is an area of low pressure off the coast of Africa which has the potential to develop. Conditions may gradually become more conducive for possible development over the next few days as this disturbance travels across the Central Atlantic. Consequently, a couple of computer models show the possibility for organization for this disturbance beginning on Sunday and Monday. Either way, this system is not expected to reach the Lesser Antilles until late next week.
Climatologically, this is the time of year when we start to see more storms develop off the coast of Africa and over the central Atlantic.
Have a great week!!
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