Beautiful Weather Expected Behind Cold Front… Mostly Sunny Skies Will Accompany Seasonal Temperatures…
Unseasonably Warm Temperatures through the Week… Mostly Sunny Conditions throughout the Peninsula…
On Nov. 5, 2012 The Wakulla County BOCC adopted an ordinance that goes into effect Feb. 1, 2013 restricting the selling or distribution of flavored tobacco products at stores that sell to minors.
In this update:
Severe weather outbreak possible on Christmas Day continuing into Wednesday Morning
An energetic and strong storm system will move across the Southern Rockies today and near the Western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. As this system quickly moves eastward across the Mid South, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop in the increasingly unstable airmass across the Southeast.
Initially, some of these storms could be strong to severe on Tuesday afternoon, but the bulk of the severe weather threat is likely to be late Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours, finally ending on Wednesday.
As is typical with storm systems that affect our part of the country this time of year, wind shear with this storm system is very strong and would support the formation of severe storms if enough instability is present. At this time, however, it is still uncertain how much moist unstable air will return northward out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Should it become warmer and more moist than currently indicated in many of the computer models, a significant severe weather outbreak would be possible across our region.
Threat Area: 7 am EST Tuesday to 7 am EST Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western two-thirds of our forecast area within a slight risk area for severe weather for Tuesday into Wednesday. Probabilities for severe weather are lower further to the east across South-central Georgia and into the Florida Big Bend through 7 am EST Wednesday. However, after 7 am EST Wednesday the slight risk has been expanded eastward to cover the remainder of the forecast area as shown below.
Also, although the primary threat for severe weather will be associated with the squall line, a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes will be possible across far western portions of the forecast area as indicated by the “hatched” region in the top right diagram.
Threat Area: After 7 am EST Wednesday
Based on the latest forecasts, showers and thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon hours as a warm front retreats further northward.
Later Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours, the severe weather threat will increase, as a strong cold front approaches from the west with a squall line. This squall line will likely be the primary severe weather event and be capable of producing damaging straight line winds in excess of 60 mph and isolated tornadoes.
The severe weather threat will completely end once the cold front passes through the area during the day on Wednesday.
Impacts and Summary:
There is potential for severe weather across the region starting on Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday morning.
The greatest severe weather threat is across Southeast Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle
Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main threats with this system.
You can view a very descriptive video here of the latest predictions on the storm: http://www.screenr.com/umC7
If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Showers and Storms Possible For Much of the State Tuesday and Wednesday…
Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Adam H. Putnam and the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services’ Florida Forest Service are encouraging Floridians to be cautious with outdoor fire while enjoying time with friends and family this holiday season.
Above Normal Temperatures Expected to Continue Statewide This Week…
Mostly Sunny and Dry Conditions throughout the State the Rest of the Week…
Mostly Dry and Pleasant Conditions Statewide this Week…
Chilly Temperatures and Gloomy Overcast Skies Expected this Weekend…
Mostly Dry Conditions Statewide but a Few Isolated Showers will be Possible Each Day this Week… Cooler Conditions Arrived in North Florida Tuesday and Statewide by the End of the Week… High Rip Current Risk at Many Atlantic Coast Beaches… Elevated Wildfire Threat in Northwest Florida, Decreasing through the Week… Hurricane Season Lasts until November 30 but the Tropics are Quiet…
Wednesday – Saturday:
The front that pushed through Northeast Florida on Tuesday will stall over the central Peninsula for most of the work week. The energy associated with this will combine with a weak disturbance moving into the region on Wednesday to keep minimal rain chances in the forecast. The onshore winds along the Atlantic Coast will continue to push moisture over much of the Peninsula through the week and this will keep minimal rain chances in the forecast.
Rain chances will stay around 20-30% over most of the Big Bend and Peninsula on Wednesday and outside of the few showers that develop, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in place. On Thursday, drier conditions will be in place through most of the state but the onshore winds along the Northeast Florida coast will push enough moisture over the area to bring around a 30% chance of rain to the northern Peninsula. These same conditions will prevail on Friday and Saturday with mostly clear conditions throughout most of the state and a slight chance of rain over Northeast Florida.
The overnight conditions will be mostly quiet and pleasant this week but calm winds and plenty of moisture over the area will allow patchy to locally dense fog to develop throughout portions of Northeast and Central Florida most nights this week. We encourage everyone to drive with caution and to slow down when approaching an area of lower visibilities.
High temperatures will be just below normal throughout North Florida as highs peak in the mid to upper 60s each day this week. Central and South Florida will see temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s.
The overnight lows will also be chilly this week as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 50s across North Florida and portions of the Nature Coast. Wednesday night will see temperatures in the 40s throughout the Panhandle while the rest of North Florida stays in the 50s, but by Thursday and through Saturday night, the entire area of North Florida will likely fall to below 50 degrees. Central Florida will see lows in the low to mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday night and in the mid to upper 50s Friday and Saturday night. For South Florida, low temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 60s Wednesday night through Friday night and will fall into the low 60s by Saturday night.
As relative humidity increases through the remainder of the week, the wildfire threat will decrease. Everyone is urged to exercise extreme care with respect to outdoor activities that could cause wildfires. Avoid the use of any equipment that can cause sparks near dry grass. Do not toss lit cigarettes on the ground. Although it may be tempting to have a bonfire during cold weather, outdoor burning is not recommended. Report new wildfires quickly to the nearest fire department or law enforcement office.
By Thursday, increasing onshore winds along the northern Atlantic Coast beaches will likely bring a high risk of rip currents to Florida’s First Coast while the risk decreases to a moderate level along the remainder of the East Coast. These conditions are forecast to persist into Friday. By Saturday, as the strong onshore winds shift further south, the high risk of rip currents will likely cover the East Central Florida beaches as well as the northern Peninsula beaches.
It is imperative that all beach-goers look for warning signs and flags before entering the surf. If red flags are flying, we encourage everyone to stay out of the water. Even if the rip current risk is below a high level, remembering to swim within sight of a lifeguard can help keep you as safe as possible. Everyone should check their local rip current forecast before going to the beach.
Tropical development is not expected within the next 48 hours. However, an area of low pressure is predicted to develop just north of Bermuda by mid week, and some models predict that this low could become a subtropical cyclone as moves north-northeastwards out to sea late in the week. Additionally, another area of low pressure could develop off the coast of the North Carolina this weekend or early next week and may acquire some subtropical characteristics before being pushed toward the northeast. For more information from the National Hurricane Center, please click here.
Florida Division 1 Football Forecast:
***Weekend game day forecasts will be provided in the Friday Statewide Weather Outlook***
Friday November 16, 2012
FIU @ FAU in Boca Raton, FL – 8:00pm ET
Saturday November 17, 2012
FSU @ Maryland in College Park, MD – 12:00pm ET
UCF @ Tulsa in Tulsa, OK – 12:00pm ET
UF vs. Jacksonville State in Gainesville, FL – 1:00pm ET
Bethune-Cookman vs. FAMU in Orlando, FL – 2:30pm ET
UM vs. USF in Miami, FL – 3:00pm ET